![]() ![]() Now, we have used the TNDM, which uses the formulae for the TLIs, as part of our effort to both analyze combat in the past and to analyze combat in the present. So, let me quote some figures from those efforts: But, we did do have some old listings and spreadsheet calculations sitting around on my computer from past model validation runs. We do have a complete list on the DOS version of the TNDM which I am too lazy or too busy right now to get up and running. We do have lists of various TLIs for a wide variety of weapons. Not sure why they needed to “estimate” the TLI of an assault rifle (AR), as it can be calculated using the formulae in Numbers, Predictions and War. David Kopel’s article provides the following figures:ġ903 Springfield bolt-action magazine-fed rifle: 495 It is clear that TLIs of assault rifles are 800-900 or higher, depending on the model of the rifle and how they are calculated. Part IV of the article actually “estimates” the TLI of an assault rifle at 640. Now, there is an article contesting the original articles on the subject on the website The Volokh Conspiracy by David Kopel called “The Theoretical Lethality Index is useful for military history but not for gun control policy.” This blog post, which is rather long, is here: The Theoretical Lethality Index is useful for military history but not for gun control policy (). I am currently not actively trying to market an effort to further explore wounded-to-killed ratios in modern combat (although I think this is sorely needed) and I am not marketing any efforts to look at lethality in a civilian environment. This has been discussed before on this blog: Wounded-to-killed ratios in Ukraine in 2022 | Mystics & Statistics () and Two proposals on Combat Casualties | Mystics & Statistics (). See: Conference: Current Perspectives on the History of Guns and Society | Mystics & Statistics ()Īttending this conference did lead to some useful discussions about collecting data on lethality and weapons effects in a civilian environment, similar in some respects to what I had in Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers. This first came to our attention through an article posted by CNN that generated thousands of pingbacks to our site: Opinion: Now that guns can kill hundreds in minutes, Supreme Court should rethink the rights question | CNN.Įven though I have my doubts about the utility of using the Theoretical Lethality Index for discussing gun control, I did attend and present at the conference “Current Perspectives on the History of Guns and Society” in mid-October. We discussed an earlier work that addressed this at Common Use, Lineage, and Lethality | Mystics & Statistics (). Well, Trevor Dupuy’s work on the Theoretical Lethality Index (TLI) that was done back in 1964 has entered into the U.S.
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